Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)
Valuation Overview•Is Hallador Energy Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 44/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
HNRG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (20.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 9.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $101.8M | +16.1% | +9.1% | +14.0% | +3.3% | |
| EBITDA | $5.0M | — | +9.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$9.3M | +118.5% | +32.2% | — | +7.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.20 | +116.8% | +20.4% | — | +3.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.8M | -5.2% | +330.9% | -17.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 17.5% | 42.2% | 34.5% | 24.7% |
| Operating Margin | 9.1% | -10.2% | -4.9% | 0.9% |
| Net Margin | 5.0% | -13.3% | -7.3% | -3.8% |
| FCF Margin | -0.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.16 | $-0.20 | -25.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.01 | $-0.01 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.06 | $0.55 | +816.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.15 | $0.19 | +226.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.16 | $0.23 | +243.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.18 | $-0.02 | +88.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.10 | $0.04 | +140.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.08 | $-0.27 | -237.5% |
Total return is +19.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -5.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.5% | -8.8% | — |
| 1Y | +19.4% | -5.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +29.3% | +5.7% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +51.6% | +34.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +17.4% | +2.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Hallador Energy Company appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Hallador Energy Company has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $6.08 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $28.25 (implying +45.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Hallador Energy Company displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 44/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.9 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 27.0%.
Hallador Energy Company does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Hallador Energy Company's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +16.1% 1Y revenue growth and +116.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +45.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Hallador Energy Company include: -36.6% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.34x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.34x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.