Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
Valuation Overview•Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
HOG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($38M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-8.1% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | -13.8% | -8.1% | +2.0% | -2.9% | |
| EBITDA | $23.5M | — | -22.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $24.8M | -25.6% | -23.0% | — | -7.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.22 | -19.2% | -17.6% | +219.1% | -2.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$259.8M | -52.1% | +1.5% | -16.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 23.0% | 34.2% | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| Operating Margin | 5.9% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 11.7% |
| Net Margin | 5.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% |
| FCF Margin | 1.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 14.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.34 | $0.22 | -35.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.92 | $-2.44 | -165.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.38 | $3.10 | +124.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.99 | $0.88 | -11.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.80 | $1.07 | +33.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.65 | $-0.93 | -43.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.79 | $0.91 | +15.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.40 | $1.63 | +16.4% |
Total return is +13.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -12.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +26.2% | +16.9% | — |
| 1Y | +13.0% | -12.0% | +3.1% |
| 3YCAGR | -6.5% | -26.3% | +6.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -7.9% | -20.9% | +7.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -2.8% | -16.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) valuation, health, and returns.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +130.0% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $59.03)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $59.03 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $23.88 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $23.60 (implying -8.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.0%.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. pays a 2.8% dividend yield, covered by a 26% payout ratio with 15 years of growth, supplemented by a 12.3% buyback yield.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -13.8% 1Y revenue growth and -19.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -8.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 35 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -8.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Harley-Davidson, Inc. include: -44.6% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.92x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.