Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK)
Valuation Overview•Is Heritage Commerce Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 62/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
HTBK demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 25.4% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $70.2M | +5.8% | — | — | +11.7% | |
| EBITDA | $23.1M | — | -10.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $15.1M | +18.0% | -10.4% | — | +11.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.25 | +18.2% | -10.6% | +5.7% | +5.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.7M | +62.7% | -4.2% | +2.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 72.6% | 73.0% | 82.3% | 87.1% |
| Operating Margin | 25.4% | 28.4% | 34.6% | 36.0% |
| Net Margin | 18.0% | 20.2% | 24.7% | 24.3% |
| FCF Margin | 23.0% | 22.3% | 27.3% | 29.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | — | $0.24 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.23 | $0.28 | +21.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.21 | $0.24 | +14.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.19 | $0.21 | +10.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.18 | $0.19 | +5.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.17 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.17 | $0.17 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.18 | $0.15 | -16.7% |
Total return is +51.7% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +26.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.7% | +4.4% | — |
| 1Y | +51.7% | +26.7% | +5.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +21.3% | +1.8% | +18.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +7.9% | -5.4% | +23.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +5.8% | -7.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Heritage Commerce Corp appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Heritage Commerce Corp has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $10.54 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $11.88 (implying -11.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Heritage Commerce Corp displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 62/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.9%.
Heritage Commerce Corp pays a 3.8% dividend yield, covered by a 67% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.5% buyback yield.
Heritage Commerce Corp's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +5.8% 1Y revenue growth and +18.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -11.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Heritage Commerce Corp include: -13.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.01x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.