MODEL VERDICT
Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $17.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $14.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $15.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $17.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $16.75 | Below threshold | +7.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $1.13 | -93.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $0.08 | -99.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.24 | -87.0% | 100% | 42 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.16 | 4.14 | 2.75 | 5.61 | 1.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.15 | 4.14 | 2.75 | 5.58 | 1.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 342.48 | 289.03 | 133.82 | 658.03 | 223.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates IE's fair value at $2.24 vs the current price of $17.19, implying -87.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 42/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
IE's current P/E of -21.8x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -183.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover IE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.75 (range: $16.00 — $17.50), implying -2.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 42/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.