MODEL VERDICT
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $81.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $83.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $80.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $84.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $80.30 | Below threshold | +5.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $39.07 | -51.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $54.17 | -33.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.72 | -43.7% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.12 | 9.35 | 5.20 | 25.88 | 7.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.02 | 9.35 | 5.12 | 25.88 | 7.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.99 | 9.12 | 5.29 | 13.41 | 2.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates IONS's fair value at $45.72 vs the current price of $81.15, implying -43.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.16 (P10) to $68.67 (P90), with a median of $45.14.
IONS's current P/E of -34.1x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -259.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover IONS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.13 (range: $65.00 — $103.00), implying +9.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IONS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.