MODEL VERDICT
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $24.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $24.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $22.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $24.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $25.29 | Pending | -10.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $14885.93 | +61641.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $13228.92 | +54769.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $12996.95 | +53806.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $11556.51 | +47832.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $12928.38 | +53522.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17116.27 | +70892.4% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.99 | 0.56 | 0.15 | 3.00 | 1.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.87 | 15.33 | 4.76 | 16.77 | 4.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.27 | 6.57 | 2.89 | 11.93 | 3.16 |
| P/FFO | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.14 |
| P/TBV | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Div Yield | 16.14 | 12.11 | 1.07 | 39.28 | 18.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates JKS's fair value at $17116.27 vs the current price of $24.11, implying +70892.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17116.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10791.07 (P10) to $15851.25 (P90), with a median of $13330.51.
JKS's current P/E of -8.1x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -150.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover JKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $23.00 — $25.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (7), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JKS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.