MODEL VERDICT
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $16.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $14.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $12.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $155.20 | +827.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $171.04 | +922.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $129.94 | +676.7% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.52 | 14.79 | 6.78 | 21.53 | 7.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.88 | 16.88 | 8.48 | 79.80 | 27.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.29 | 9.05 | 5.83 | 10.16 | 1.88 |
| P/FFO | 4.58 | 4.19 | 1.38 | 8.77 | 2.50 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.18 | 1.71 | 0.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.94 | 0.18 | 1.69 | 0.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.92 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSIQ's fair value at $129.94 vs the current price of $16.73, implying +676.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $129.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.73 (P10) to $201.13 (P90), with a median of $134.81.
CSIQ's current P/E of -10.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -154.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover CSIQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.88 (range: $19.64 — $37.00), implying +72.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (12), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CSIQ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.