MODEL VERDICT
Navient Corporation SR NT 6% 121543 (JSM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $19.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $19.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $19.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $19.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.57 | Pending | +0.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $13.42 | -30.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $40.46 | +108.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $31.33 | +61.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $20.53 | +6.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $14.03 | -27.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.10 | +24.4% | 100% | 93 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 | $25 |
| Base Case (-14.1%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.81 | 11.00 | 3.93 | 14.80 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.22 | 22.88 | 1.44 | 36.55 | 11.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 55.16 | 41.70 | 2.28 | 116.68 | 43.48 |
| P/FCF | 5.28 | 4.97 | 3.82 | 8.32 | 1.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.58 | 0.88 | 2.86 | 0.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.30 | 1.23 | 0.73 | 2.00 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.20 | 0.51 | 2.28 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates JSM's fair value at $24.10 vs the current price of $19.37, implying +24.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.86 (P10) to $30.39 (P90), with a median of $25.09.
JSM's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +44.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover JSM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.50 (range: $16.00 — $19.00), implying -9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JSM trades at the 6100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JSM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16140.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.