MODEL VERDICT
Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $21.74 | +51.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $48.71 | +239.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $15.85 | +10.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $17.45 | +21.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $15.46 | +7.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $6.83 | -52.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $89.59 | +523.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $74.45 | +418.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $15.84 | +10.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $17.45 | +21.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.78 | +79.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $13 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 6.43 | 6.46 | 4.91 | 7.93 | 1.27 |
| P/TBV | 17.54 | 19.54 | 2.03 | 36.52 | 14.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.62 | 4.20 | 1.46 | 5.95 | 1.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.49 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates KD's fair value at $25.78 vs the current price of $14.36, implying +79.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.32 (P10) to $29.09 (P90), with a median of $25.66.
KD's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -9.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover KD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.67 (range: $15.00 — $28.00), implying +37.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.