MODEL VERDICT
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $95.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $95.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $95.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $96.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $91.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $194.40 | +102.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $233.93 | +143.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $174.66 | +82.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $281.51 | +193.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $209.35 | +118.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $314.81 | +228.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $263.88 | +175.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $290.75 | +203.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $262.13 | +173.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $174.63 | +82.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $281.10 | +193.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $212.14 | +121.2% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $66 | $82 | $99 | $115 | $131 |
| Conservative (11%) | $68 | $85 | $102 | $119 | $137 |
| Base Case (16.7%) | $72 | $90 | $108 | $126 | $144 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $75 | $94 | $113 | $132 | $151 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.09 | 23.11 | 12.46 | 24.71 | 5.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.79 | 18.97 | 8.73 | 19.92 | 4.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.89 | 13.10 | 6.77 | 14.95 | 3.10 |
| P/FCF | 11.69 | 12.78 | 6.92 | 16.27 | 3.36 |
| P/FFO | 12.38 | 12.65 | 8.80 | 15.64 | 2.84 |
| P/AFFO | 13.33 | 14.35 | 9.39 | 16.62 | 3.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.52 | 3.36 | 2.97 | 4.07 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.61 | 0.90 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAIC's fair value at $212.14 vs the current price of $95.91, implying +121.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $212.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $195.83 (P10) to $222.77 (P90), with a median of $209.10.
SAIC's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -45.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover SAIC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $97.50 (range: $82.00 — $113.00), implying +1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAIC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3470.0% to approximately $129. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.