MODEL VERDICT
KLA Corporation (KLAC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1524.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1496.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1464.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1430.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $1400.00 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $1192.63 | -21.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $1186.96 | -22.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $1280.27 | -16.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $1373.31 | -9.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $1782.01 | +16.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $1321.12 | -13.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $1744.11 | +14.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $692.63 | -54.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $742.88 | -51.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $1305.62 | -14.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $1422.38 | -6.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1095.58 | -28.1% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $1437 | $1573 | $1710 | $1847 | $1984 |
| Conservative (21%) | $1537 | $1684 | $1830 | $1977 | $2123 |
| Base Case (31.6%) | $1679 | $1838 | $1998 | $2158 | $2318 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $1819 | $1992 | $2165 | $2339 | $2512 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.85 | 31.07 | 17.20 | 40.01 | 7.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.09 | 25.89 | 17.08 | 33.66 | 5.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.52 | 20.53 | 15.51 | 29.55 | 4.53 |
| P/FCF | 28.86 | 27.36 | 19.01 | 43.43 | 7.89 |
| P/FFO | 24.89 | 26.14 | 15.51 | 36.47 | 6.76 |
| P/TBV | 188.28 | 125.49 | 66.19 | 373.16 | 162.83 |
| P/AFFO | 27.31 | 28.97 | 16.92 | 39.49 | 7.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 24.91 | 25.48 | 10.44 | 40.84 | 10.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.42 | 7.77 | 6.12 | 13.37 | 2.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KLAC's fair value at $1095.58 vs the current price of $1524.55, implying -28.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1095.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $972.87 (P10) to $1312.45 (P90), with a median of $1140.47.
KLAC's current P/E of 50.2x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +19.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
43 analysts cover KLAC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1672.25 (range: $1400.00 — $1900.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 35.8% is 7.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (35.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$867. (2) Multiple compression: KLAC trades at the 5320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KLAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (35.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4310.0% to approximately $867. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.