Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$1,524.55
→
Intrinsic$1,041.13
-32%
$686.38$1,041.13$1,745.93
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $686 → Bull $1746. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1329 | $1439 | $1556 | $1681 |
| 10% | $891 | $964 | $1041 | $1123 |
| 12% | $660 | $713 | $770 | $830 |
| 14% | $518 | $559 | $603 | $650 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1746) offers 15% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($686) implies 55% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 32% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$4.68B
Year 2$5.85B
Year 3$7.31B
Year 4$9.13B
Year 5$11.42B
Terminal$180.94B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.74BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.