MODEL VERDICT
Klarna Group plc (KLAR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $13.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $18.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $20.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $31.45 | Below threshold | -35.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $0.15 | -98.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $22.31 | +64.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $30.70 | +126.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $33.57 | +147.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $23.87 | +76.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $0.16 | -98.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $23.15 | +70.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.74 | +23.5% | 100% | 59 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1700× | 1862× | 2024× (Current) | 2186× | 2348× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates KLAR's fair value at $16.74 vs the current price of $13.56, implying +23.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.69 (P10) to $30.35 (P90), with a median of $24.47.
KLAR's current P/E of 2023.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +8710.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover KLAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.36 (range: $16.00 — $53.00), implying +182.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KLAR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.