MODEL VERDICT
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $141.76 | +2146.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $148.44 | +2252.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.38 | +2283.2% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 16.26 | 22.04 | 2.90 | 23.84 | 11.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.26 | 22.04 | 2.90 | 23.84 | 11.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.88 | 2.30 | 0.57 | 29.01 | 10.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates KPTI's fair value at $150.38 vs the current price of $6.31, implying +2283.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.88 (P10) to $232.98 (P90), with a median of $149.51.
KPTI's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -102.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover KPTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.17 (range: $6.00 — $21.00), implying +124.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KPTI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.