MODEL VERDICT
Gladstone Land Corporation (LAND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 4 REIT peers | $4.27 | -56.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $44.37 | +353.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $7.41 | -24.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $21.02 | +114.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $21.20 | +116.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $8.47 | -13.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.64 | +80.4% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 37.27 | 36.78 | 25.55 | 59.03 | 11.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.30 | 17.08 | 3.25 | 28.40 | 7.98 |
| P/FCF | 30.70 | 28.00 | 16.00 | 47.77 | 11.52 |
| P/FFO | 16.22 | 15.07 | 8.05 | 33.27 | 8.22 |
| P/TBV | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 45.43 | 36.59 | 9.02 | 113.45 | 38.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.50 | 1.74 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.76 | 5.71 | 4.39 | 13.61 | 3.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates LAND's fair value at $17.64 vs the current price of $9.78, implying +80.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.17 (P10) to $21.75 (P90), with a median of $18.29.
LAND's current P/E of -33.7x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -297.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover LAND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +2.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LAND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.