MODEL VERDICT
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust (ILPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $19.18 | +149.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $25.19 | +227.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $18.53 | +140.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $3.97 | -48.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $22.54 | +192.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $23.56 | +206.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $59.36 | +670.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.35 | +99.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.95 | 18.48 | 13.69 | 27.68 | 7.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.66 | 27.33 | 21.32 | 32.75 | 4.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.48 | 14.68 | 8.81 | 17.54 | 2.79 |
| P/FCF | 32.33 | 14.71 | 3.26 | 122.16 | 42.58 |
| P/FFO | 7.31 | 6.97 | 3.14 | 13.01 | 4.11 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| P/AFFO | 10.07 | 10.18 | 4.55 | 15.36 | 4.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.80 | 0.41 | 0.16 | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.19 | 0.81 | 0.54 | 7.43 | 3.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates ILPT's fair value at $15.35 vs the current price of $7.70, implying +99.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.46 (P10) to $19.18 (P90), with a median of $15.72.
ILPT's current P/E of -7.7x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -127.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover ILPT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.40 (range: $7.40 — $7.40), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ILPT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.