MODEL VERDICT
Lavoro Limited (LVRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $139.25 | +12559.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $104.80 | +9427.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.09 | +8362.8% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 5.30 | 4.91 | 2.64 | 8.75 | 2.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.76 | 5.62 | 4.05 | 7.76 | 1.89 |
| P/FCF | 34.06 | 22.94 | 10.60 | 68.65 | 30.58 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.40 | 0.75 | 1.60 | 0.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates LVRO's fair value at $93.09 vs the current price of $1.10, implying +8362.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.81 (P10) to $143.70 (P90), with a median of $105.97.
LVRO's current P/E of -0.3x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -101.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover LVRO with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $4.50 (range: $1.50 — $7.00), implying +309.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LVRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.