MODEL VERDICT
LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (LX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.97 | CURRENT | -20.9% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.76 | Pending | -15.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.96 | Pending | -25.3% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.01 | Monitoring | -26.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.26 | Monitoring | -18.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $78.67 | +2548.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 45 industry peers | $99.41 | +3247.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 43 bank peers | $93.02 | +3032.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 33 industry peers | $31.29 | +953.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 42 industry peers | $81.58 | +2646.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 42 analyst estimates | $72.58 | +2343.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.44 | +1800.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $33 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $34 | $48 |
| Base Case (-11.9%) | $23 | $23 | $23 | $29 | $40 |
| Bull Case (-16%) | $22 | $22 | $22 | $27 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.84 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 2.15 | 0.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.48 | 2.54 | 1.75 | 11.98 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.81 | 2.92 | 1.29 | 16.86 | 5.54 |
| P/FCF | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 1.18 | 0.46 |
| P/FFO | 0.79 | 0.66 | 0.27 | 1.96 | 0.60 |
| P/TBV | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 0.88 | 0.67 | 0.34 | 2.24 | 0.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates LX's fair value at $56.44 vs the current price of $2.97, implying +1800.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.45 (P10) to $74.09 (P90), with a median of $56.88.
LX's current P/E of 3.2x compares to the industry median of 12.1x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -73.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover LX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $3.50 — $3.50), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LX trades at the 700th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23800.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.