MODEL VERDICT
LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $48.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $47.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $51.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $50.07 | Below threshold | +2.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $7.33 | -85.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $6.22 | -87.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $50.33 | +1.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $1.20 | -97.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $7.38 | -85.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $4.76 | -90.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.27 | -71.2% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $55 | $59 |
| Base Case (-11.2%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.21 | 26.37 | 9.23 | 121.42 | 40.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.96 | 55.26 | 34.37 | 88.54 | 19.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.01 | 15.82 | 8.99 | 21.84 | 5.13 |
| P/FCF | 39.13 | 15.43 | 12.24 | 177.26 | 60.99 |
| P/FFO | 9.12 | 8.91 | 5.87 | 13.07 | 2.42 |
| P/TBV | 3.75 | 1.60 | 1.26 | 16.66 | 5.70 |
| P/AFFO | 9.80 | 9.70 | 6.13 | 14.22 | 2.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.23 | 1.43 | 1.12 | 14.18 | 4.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 19.46 | 8.62 | 6.60 | 82.91 | 28.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates LXP's fair value at $14.27 vs the current price of $49.56, implying -71.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.06 (P10) to $25.33 (P90), with a median of $17.20.
LXP's current P/E of 27.2x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -1.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover LXP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.25 (range: $11.50 — $51.00), implying -36.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LXP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7860.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.