MODEL VERDICT
Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $16.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $19.21 | Below threshold | -13.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $13.11 | -5.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $179.33 | +1195.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $52.23 | +277.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $53.59 | +287.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $56.52 | +308.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $50.74 | +266.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $198.89 | +1337.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $52.60 | +280.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.57 | +388.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $28 | $28 | $28 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $29 | $29 | $29 | $44 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $31 | $31 | $31 | $31 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 20.61 | 11.28 | 3.05 | 76.83 | 25.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.63 | 9.15 | 2.47 | 10.67 | 3.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.59 | 1.31 | 0.92 | 6.49 | 2.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates LYFT's fair value at $67.57 vs the current price of $13.84, implying +388.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.77 (P10) to $101.38 (P90), with a median of $75.07.
LYFT's current P/E of 2.0x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -92.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
59 analysts cover LYFT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.85 (range: $13.00 — $26.00), implying +43.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (34), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LYFT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.