MODEL VERDICT
Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $3.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $3.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $4.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $3.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $3.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $1.92 | -47.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $1.52 | -58.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $0.89 | -75.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $0.54 | -85.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $1.29 | -64.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $0.72 | -80.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $2.65 | -27.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $2.40 | -34.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $0.89 | -75.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $0.53 | -85.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.47 | -32.8% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 351.99 | 156.63 | 24.33 | 875.01 | 457.76 |
| P/TBV | 3.06 | 3.51 | 2.13 | 3.68 | 0.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.66 | 2.97 | 1.85 | 3.33 | 0.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 29.15 | 7.66 | 5.56 | 108.29 | 40.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRAB's fair value at $2.47 vs the current price of $3.67, implying -32.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.45 (P10) to $3.91 (P90), with a median of $2.47.
GRAB's current P/E of 57.6x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +313.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover GRAB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.70 (range: $5.80 — $7.00), implying +82.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GRAB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.