MODEL VERDICT
LegalZoom.com, Inc. (LZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $6.13 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $16.73 | +172.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $7.18 | +17.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $2.05 | -66.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $15.14 | +147.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $2.74 | -55.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $18.02 | +194.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $2.18 | -64.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $22.21 | +262.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $20.95 | +241.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $3.03 | -50.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $17.55 | +186.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.67 | +90.3% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (11%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (16.7%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.48 | 124.13 | 46.94 | 157.38 | 56.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.48 | 49.07 | 28.47 | 61.91 | 16.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.05 | 26.80 | 17.06 | 40.30 | 11.67 |
| P/FCF | 30.84 | 23.70 | 12.40 | 75.05 | 25.69 |
| P/FFO | 33.98 | 29.19 | 20.49 | 52.27 | 16.42 |
| P/TBV | 56.12 | 26.18 | 23.94 | 140.80 | 50.33 |
| P/AFFO | 103.57 | 56.33 | 43.84 | 210.53 | 92.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.03 | 13.01 | 10.65 | 16.11 | 2.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 2.44 | 2.01 | 5.54 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LZ's fair value at $11.67 vs the current price of $6.13, implying +90.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.65 (P10) to $15.83 (P90), with a median of $12.69.
LZ's current P/E of 76.6x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +198.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 109.5x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover LZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.17 (range: $6.50 — $10.00), implying +33.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11000.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.