MODEL VERDICT
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $5.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $10.50 | +92.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $14.51 | +165.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $10.12 | +85.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $19.01 | +248.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $10.32 | +89.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $20.31 | +272.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.01 | +174.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.71 | +206.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $10.13 | +85.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $19.07 | +249.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.53 | +4122.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.24 | 30.99 | 16.82 | 57.90 | 20.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.10 | 19.70 | 15.05 | 37.95 | 10.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 864.42 | 10.94 | 7.91 | 4277.66 | 1908.06 |
| P/FCF | 13.75 | 9.27 | 6.37 | 30.11 | 11.06 |
| P/FFO | 9.51 | 7.95 | 4.17 | 17.96 | 6.62 |
| P/AFFO | 11.78 | 7.23 | 7.02 | 21.08 | 8.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.82 | 4.82 | 3.70 | 5.94 | 1.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.24 | 2.03 | 0.54 | 5.12 | 1.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MLCO's fair value at $230.53 vs the current price of $5.46, implying +4122.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.55 (P10) to $890.82 (P90), with a median of $238.24.
MLCO's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -46.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover MLCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $9.50 — $9.50), implying +74.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MLCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.