Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
MLCO Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-327M | $44M | $185M | $397M | $706M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.75 | $0.10 | $0.45 | $1.03 | $1.92 | $3.35 | $4.77 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | +325.0% | +114.6% | +77.8% | +65.3% | +35.3% |
| Net Margin | -8.7% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 14.1% |
USD · MLCO · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $6.4B | $8.0B | $9.8B | $11.2B |
| Net Income | $185M | $397M | $706M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.45 | $1.03 | $1.92 | $3.35 | $4.77 |
| Free Cash Flow | $476M | $847M | $1.5B | $2.3B | $3.2B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MLCO stock.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.03. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 30/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited: Bear case $26, Base case $23, and Bull case $N/A. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 23.5%, reaching approximately $6.4B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 30/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 14.5% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($26) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 101.8% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 17% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.