Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)
Valuation Overview•Is Mach Natural Resources LP Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 51/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
MNR demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.8% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 21.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $382.8M | +21.2% | +7.8% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $185.4M | — | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$35.0M | +54.4% | -17.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.21 | -42.6% | -41.5% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $110.3M | -17.0% | -8.7% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.9% | 39.4% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Operating Margin | 21.1% | 35.2% | 40.2% | 40.2% |
| Net Margin | 17.7% | 29.6% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| FCF Margin | 7.3% | 24.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.51 | $0.74 | +45.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.26 | $0.43 | +65.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.34 | $0.44 | +29.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.53 | $0.76 | +43.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.69 | $0.68 | -1.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.44 | $0.62 | +40.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.56 | $0.70 | +25.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.62 | $0.42 | -32.3% |
Total return is -7.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -32.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +21.1% | +11.8% | — |
| 1Y | -7.1% | -32.1% | +11.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +0.8% | -18.7% | +34.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +0.5% | -12.0% | +34.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +0.2% | -13.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) valuation, health, and returns.
Mach Natural Resources LP is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +404.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $62.81)
Mach Natural Resources LP has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $62.81 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $9.88 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $18.00 (implying +44.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mach Natural Resources LP displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 51/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.9 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.1%.
Mach Natural Resources LP pays a 14.9% dividend yield, covered by a 85% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Mach Natural Resources LP's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +21.2% 1Y revenue growth and -42.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +44.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mach Natural Resources LP include: -30.6% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.13x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.