MODEL VERDICT
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $13.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $13.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $13.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.83 | Pending | +16.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $13.56 | +4.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $21.81 | +67.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $27.12 | +108.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $26.74 | +105.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $25.23 | +93.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $25.02 | +92.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $18.49 | +42.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $18.31 | +40.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $27.12 | +108.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $27.59 | +111.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.16 | +131.6% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $10 | $14 | $18 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $10 | $14 | $18 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $10 | $15 | $19 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $11 | $15 | $19 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNR's fair value at $30.16 vs the current price of $13.02, implying +131.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.38 (P10) to $26.18 (P90), with a median of $22.23.
MNR's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -52.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover MNR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $18.00 — $20.00), implying +45.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MNR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4750.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.