MODEL VERDICT
Monro, Inc. (MNRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $16.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $5.66 | -67.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.63 | -22.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $47.19 | +168.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $0.10 | -99.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $60.76 | +245.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $12.31 | -30.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.49 | -6.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $45.80 | +160.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.41 | +44.5% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.39 | 28.23 | 21.75 | 58.27 | 13.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.51 | 23.69 | 19.54 | 85.20 | 23.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.09 | 12.38 | 9.72 | 17.95 | 3.31 |
| P/FCF | 13.77 | 10.54 | 5.44 | 27.67 | 8.98 |
| P/FFO | 12.49 | 10.78 | 7.21 | 19.47 | 4.82 |
| P/TBV | 48.27 | 55.15 | 31.77 | 57.90 | 14.36 |
| P/AFFO | 20.00 | 15.86 | 9.38 | 32.96 | 9.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.05 | 1.97 | 0.97 | 3.76 | 0.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 2.19 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNRO's fair value at $25.41 vs the current price of $17.58, implying +44.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.27 (P10) to $33.65 (P90), with a median of $24.84.
MNRO's current P/E of -79.9x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -703.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover MNRO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying +127.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MNRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.