MODEL VERDICT
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $154.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $151.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $135.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $125.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $181.50 | Below threshold | -29.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $198.33 | +28.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $189.49 | +23.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $110.37 | -28.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $194.66 | +26.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $166.03 | +7.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1528.48 | +892.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $263.27 | +70.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $257.75 | +67.3% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $118 | $136 | $155 | $173 | $191 |
| Conservative (5%) | $122 | $140 | $159 | $178 | $197 |
| Base Case (-4.5%) | $111 | $128 | $145 | $162 | $179 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $109 | $126 | $142 | $159 | $176 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.48 | 19.24 | 11.82 | 28.27 | 5.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.64 | 11.37 | 7.31 | 16.68 | 3.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.22 | 9.38 | 6.84 | 14.42 | 2.72 |
| P/FCF | 18.70 | 18.42 | 7.02 | 30.87 | 10.21 |
| P/FFO | 16.22 | 16.63 | 10.55 | 23.59 | 4.52 |
| P/TBV | 8.68 | 7.59 | 4.87 | 13.53 | 3.57 |
| P/AFFO | 17.91 | 17.82 | 11.33 | 26.14 | 5.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.01 | 4.98 | 2.26 | 7.09 | 1.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MOH's fair value at $257.75 vs the current price of $154.05, implying +67.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $257.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $200.04 (P10) to $288.02 (P90), with a median of $242.89.
MOH's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
38 analysts cover MOH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $154.82 (range: $109.00 — $224.00), implying +0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (15), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MOH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20760.0% to approximately $474. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.