Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$154.05
→
Intrinsic$259.81
+69%
$178.86$259.81$413.52
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MOH could have 69% upside at 19% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $154, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 19%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $179 → Bull $414. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 15% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $315 | $341 | $369 | $398 |
| 10% | $223 | $241 | $260 | $280 |
| 12% | $172 | $186 | $200 | $215 |
| 14% | $140 | $151 | $162 | $173 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($414) offers 168% upside at 23% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (19%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($179) with 15% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$563.04M
Year 2$671.65M
Year 3$801.20M
Year 4$955.75M
Year 5$1.14B
Terminal$16.78B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate19.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$472.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.