MODEL VERDICT
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $246.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $224.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $213.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $223.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $222.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $274.81 | +11.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $177.00 | -28.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $168.03 | -31.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $248.86 | +1.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $177.09 | -28.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $210.11 | -14.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $111.22 | -54.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $300.21 | +22.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $307.16 | +24.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $168.12 | -31.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $249.99 | +1.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $195.54 | -20.6% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $218 | $240 | $262 | $284 | $306 |
| Conservative (13%) | $229 | $252 | $274 | $297 | $320 |
| Base Case (20.5%) | $243 | $267 | $292 | $316 | $340 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $258 | $283 | $309 | $335 | $361 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.40 | 12.50 | 4.14 | 23.79 | 7.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.37 | 11.16 | 3.66 | 15.49 | 4.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.07 | 8.22 | 3.21 | 9.00 | 2.30 |
| P/FCF | 8.36 | 8.20 | 4.31 | 14.10 | 3.62 |
| P/FFO | 5.21 | 5.47 | 3.12 | 7.01 | 1.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.90 | 1.61 | 1.22 | 2.93 | 0.69 |
| P/AFFO | 13.27 | 8.33 | 3.51 | 38.03 | 13.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.69 | 1.94 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPC's fair value at $195.54 vs the current price of $246.15, implying -20.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $195.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $173.81 (P10) to $232.77 (P90), with a median of $199.83.
MPC's current P/E of 24.4x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +46.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover MPC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $214.78 (range: $174.00 — $233.00), implying -12.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MPC trades at the 6360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MPC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2300.0% to approximately $190. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.