Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Valuation Overview•Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Popular:
Below average — notable weaknesses in key areas
Monthly model snapshots showing quantitative assessments. High Conviction = model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Return columns show actual price changes following each observation date for reference purposes only.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 26Latest | Neutral | 0.21 | $246.15 | — | — |
| Apr 24, 26 | Neutral | 0.23 | $224.14 | — | — |
| Apr 17, 26 | Neutral | 0.23 | $213.69 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 26 | Neutral | 0.23 | $223.03 | — | — |
| Apr 10, 26 | Neutral | 0.22 | $222.62 | — | — |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.74 | $1.65 | +123.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.72 | $4.07 | +49.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $3.15 | $3.01 | -4.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $3.24 | $3.96 | +22.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.54 | $-0.24 | +55.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.02 | $0.77 | +3401.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.98 | $1.87 | +90.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $3.09 | $4.12 | +33.3% |
Total return, benchmark alpha, and annual history in one section.
3Y, 5Y, and 10Y use CAGR when available.
| Period | Return | vs S&P | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +58.4% | +52.4% | — |
| 1Y | +84.4% | +56.0% | +2.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +36.3% | +15.2% | +9.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +36.0% | +24.4% | +26.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +23.0% | +9.1% | — |
Year-by-year total return versus SPY, including dividend contribution.
| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +20.6% | +0.4% | +20.2% | +0.6% |
| 2025 | +17.6% | +16.6% | +0.9% | +2.6% |
| 2024 | -6.2% | +24.0% | -30.2% | +2.2% |
| 2023 | +36.5% | +24.8% | +11.7% | +2.8% |
| 2022Best | +81.1% | -19.9% | +101.0% | +3.8% |
| 2021 | +62.7% | +28.8% | +33.9% | +5.7% |
| 2020Worst | -29.4% | +15.1% | -44.5% | +3.7% |
| 2019 | +4.6% | +28.7% | -24.1% | +3.6% |
Based on our multi-model analysis of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) at $260.51: Relative valuation verdict: Overvalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 39/100 (below average). Wall Street consensus: Buy from 33 analysts. This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $195.54 (Overvalued, -20.6% vs current price). Analyst consensus target: $214.78 (-17.6% upside, 33 analysts). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 39/100. Piotroski F-Score: 7/9 (strong fundamentals). Altman Z-Score: 3.0 (grey zone — monitor closely). Return on invested capital: 8.3%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): 2.04x (earnings are cash-backed). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's performance profile: 1-year total return: +84.4%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: +56.0% (outperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: +36.0%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -18.7%. Relative Strength rating: 85/99 (strong momentum). Beta: 0.30 (less volatile than the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
Current dividend yield: 1.4%. Annual dividend per share: $3.74. Payout ratio: 28% (well-covered). Consecutive years of growth: 4 (growing). 5-year dividend CAGR: +9.9%. Buyback yield: 4.5% (hybrid return program). Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks): 6.0%.
Wall Street's outlook on Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Consensus rating: Buy from 33 covering analysts. Consensus price target: $214.78 (range: $174.00 to $233.00). Implied upside from current price: -17.6%. Earnings beat rate: 92% with a 2-quarter consecutive beat streak. Forward P/E: 11.7x. Analyst estimates are blended into our proprietary model with weight based on coverage depth and historical accuracy. We track estimate revisions, beat rates, and grade changes daily.
Key risks identified for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Cyclicality risk: The stock shows cyclical earnings behavior (severity: high, currently at Mid-Cycle of the cycle). Solvency caution: Altman Z-Score (3.0) is in the grey zone — financial health requires monitoring. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.