Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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MPC Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B | $5.3B | $5.5B | $6.2B | $6.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $23.65 | $10.09 | $13.27 | $16.35 | $17.95 | $21.34 | $24.85 |
| YoY Growth | — | -64.4% | +17.5% | +30.9% | +4.3% | +12.9% | +10.6% |
| Net Margin | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% |
USD · MPC · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $132.7B | $138.6B | $134.3B | $127.1B | $122.2B |
| Net Income | $4.0B | $5.3B | $5.5B | $6.2B | $6.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $13.27 | $16.35 | $17.95 | $21.34 | $24.85 |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | $3.8B | $4.8B | $5.4B | $6.0B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MPC stock.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $16.35. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 53/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Bear case $N/A, Base case $464, and Bull case $2808. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 4.0%, reaching approximately $138.6B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 53/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's forward operating margin is estimated at 5.2% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 26.4% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 37% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.