MODEL VERDICT
Everspin Technologies, Inc. (MRAM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $2.56 | -77.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 46 industry peers | $1.61 | -85.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 53 industry peers | $9.18 | -18.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 60 industry peers | $11.26 | -0.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 87 industry peers | $19.58 | +73.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 87 industry peers | $14.81 | +30.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $1.72 | -84.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 60 industry peers | $9.59 | -15.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.17 | -54.3% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 270× | 296× | 322× (Current) | 348× | 374× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.40 | 36.44 | 19.17 | 181.53 | 76.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.55 | 35.20 | 15.27 | 140.52 | 57.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.92 | 22.82 | 13.60 | 32.35 | 9.38 |
| P/FCF | 23.94 | 22.16 | 16.48 | 34.96 | 8.80 |
| P/FFO | 32.59 | 28.88 | 16.24 | 56.36 | 18.81 |
| P/TBV | 4.40 | 3.69 | 2.39 | 8.29 | 1.95 |
| P/AFFO | 31.96 | 26.72 | 21.82 | 47.33 | 13.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.38 | 3.69 | 2.26 | 8.29 | 1.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.60 | 2.43 | 1.86 | 4.09 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRAM's fair value at $5.17 vs the current price of $11.32, implying -54.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.48 (P10) to $8.50 (P90), with a median of $6.95.
MRAM's current P/E of 321.6x compares to the industry median of 45.7x (46 peers in the group). This represents a +604.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 68.4x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover MRAM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying -20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MRAM trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (68.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MRAM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.