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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$32.07
→
Intrinsic$54.59
+70%
$33.91$54.59$93.90
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MTCH could have 70% upside at 11% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $32, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 11%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $34 → Bull $94. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →7%9%11%13%
8%$67$74$82$90
10%$45$49$55$60
12%$32$36$40$44
14%$24$27$30$33

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($94) offers 193% upside at 13% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (11%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($34) with 9% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$980.47M
Year 2$1.09B
Year 3$1.21B
Year 4$1.35B
Year 5$1.50B
Terminal$22.02B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate11.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$882.14MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is MTCH stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

MTCH trades at $32.07 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $54.59, implying +67% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 11.1% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of MTCH's future cash flows. The bear case ($35.31) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is MTCH's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $882M, projected at 11.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.99B net debt and dividing by 0.28B shares: Bear $35.31 | Base $54.59 | Bull $81.12. Current price $32.07 implies +67% to base case.

How is MTCH's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 11.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($18.22B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 20.7x.