MODEL VERDICT
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $26.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $27.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $27.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $26.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $26.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $8.05 | -69.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $18.74 | -29.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $12.16 | -54.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $15.31 | -42.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $15.34 | -42.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $21.35 | -19.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $20.07 | -24.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $14.49 | -45.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $9.75 | -63.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $13.16 | -50.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.47 | -34.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Base Case (-0.2%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.12 | 21.41 | 13.03 | 36.65 | 8.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.63 | 10.15 | 7.76 | 13.28 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.64 | 6.83 | 3.76 | 8.80 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 19.57 | 13.64 | 9.11 | 51.03 | 15.77 |
| P/FFO | 10.89 | 10.51 | 9.31 | 12.52 | 1.40 |
| P/TBV | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.09 | 2.47 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 16.83 | 14.82 | 10.99 | 24.94 | 5.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.09 | 2.47 | 0.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.76 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NATR's fair value at $17.47 vs the current price of $26.66, implying -34.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.32 (P10) to $19.35 (P90), with a median of $16.67.
NATR's current P/E of 25.2x compares to the industry median of 11.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +119.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover NATR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $18.00 — $21.00), implying -26.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NATR trades at the 7590th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NATR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2930.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.