MODEL VERDICT
Noodles & Company (NDLS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $11.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $9.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $8.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $8.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $23.19 | +83.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $27.75 | +119.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.93 | +176.3% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 388.73 | 125.95 | 66.70 | 1827.74 | 643.93 |
| P/FFO | 109.21 | 101.06 | 68.24 | 164.03 | 37.97 |
| P/TBV | 77.57 | 62.63 | 46.87 | 128.42 | 34.13 |
| P/AFFO | 8773.22 | 463.43 | 403.35 | 25452.89 | 14445.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 60.44 | 48.75 | 39.42 | 94.21 | 24.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.33 | 4.31 | 0.43 | 7.11 | 2.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NDLS's fair value at $34.93 vs the current price of $12.64, implying +176.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.97 (P10) to $38.52 (P90), with a median of $28.14.
NDLS's current P/E of -15.8x compares to the industry median of 26.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -159.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover NDLS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $48.00 (range: $40.00 — $56.00), implying +279.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NDLS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.