MODEL VERDICT
Freshworks Inc. (FRSH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $7.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $9.96 | +13.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $7.47 | -14.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $9.72 | +11.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $13.11 | +49.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $11.30 | +29.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $7.26 | -17.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $80.52 | +820.2% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1069.72 | 88.45 | 33.32 | 3087.40 | 1747.58 |
| P/TBV | 5.44 | 5.64 | 4.00 | 6.46 | 1.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.13 | 5.06 | 3.98 | 6.42 | 1.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.55 | 9.97 | 6.75 | 19.50 | 5.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRSH's fair value at $80.52 vs the current price of $8.75, implying +820.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $80.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.70 (P10) to $221.99 (P90), with a median of $75.73.
FRSH's current P/E of -27.3x compares to the industry median of 48.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -156.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover FRSH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.43 (range: $8.00 — $15.00), implying +30.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FRSH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.