MODEL VERDICT
Neogen Corporation (NEOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $9.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $9.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $9.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $9.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $9.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.75 | -18.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $2.88 | -69.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $7.11 | -25.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $10.44 | +9.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.48 | -21.5% | 100% | 64 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.39 | 64.02 | 33.84 | 79.67 | 19.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 63.68 | 55.94 | 26.59 | 133.63 | 36.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.45 | 36.00 | 16.93 | 50.31 | 14.55 |
| P/FCF | 66.14 | 68.68 | 37.72 | 89.46 | 21.33 |
| P/FFO | 43.59 | 48.90 | 22.85 | 59.38 | 16.70 |
| P/TBV | 6.36 | 7.49 | 2.58 | 7.89 | 2.53 |
| P/AFFO | 1416.53 | 77.89 | 34.58 | 6827.90 | 3025.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.08 | 1.85 | 0.73 | 5.79 | 2.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.85 | 4.62 | 1.69 | 10.38 | 3.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEOG's fair value at $7.48 vs the current price of $9.53, implying -21.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.78 (P10) to $9.93 (P90), with a median of $7.80.
NEOG's current P/E of -1.9x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -115.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover NEOG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $10.00 — $12.00), implying +15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NEOG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.