MODEL VERDICT
QuidelOrtho Corporation (QDEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $29.98 | +137.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $32.62 | +158.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $88.97 | +603.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $127.13 | +905.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $32.15 | +154.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.24 | +218.4% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.55 | 9.31 | 8.22 | 43.37 | 17.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.47 | 9.22 | 5.69 | 49.52 | 19.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.91 | 6.71 | 5.34 | 23.44 | 7.52 |
| P/FCF | 24.96 | 16.14 | 6.61 | 69.44 | 23.22 |
| P/FFO | 12.09 | 9.11 | 5.91 | 26.79 | 8.43 |
| P/TBV | 18.72 | 8.97 | 3.87 | 43.31 | 21.45 |
| P/AFFO | 16.95 | 12.47 | 7.11 | 34.59 | 11.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.66 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 5.88 | 2.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.73 | 1.64 | 0.71 | 6.05 | 2.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates QDEL's fair value at $40.24 vs the current price of $12.64, implying +218.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.21 (P10) to $46.04 (P90), with a median of $37.68.
QDEL's current P/E of -0.8x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -102.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover QDEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +34.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for QDEL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.