MODEL VERDICT
NewtekOne, Inc. 8.00% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2028 (NEWTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $25.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $25.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $25.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $25.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $25.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $25.43 | +0.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $15.46 | -39.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $14.96 | -41.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $40.32 | +59.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $25.25 | -0.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $23.38 | -7.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.78 | +1.7% | 100% | 84 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 |
| Base Case (8.2%) | $18 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $18 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.30 | 12.90 | 10.68 | 13.32 | 1.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.27 | 18.86 | 14.53 | 24.41 | 4.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.63 | 18.77 | 14.16 | 22.95 | 4.40 |
| P/FFO | 11.60 | 12.10 | 10.56 | 12.14 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 2.32 | 2.26 | 1.91 | 2.78 | 0.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 2.15 | 1.63 | 2.45 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.14 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 2.41 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEWTI's fair value at $25.78 vs the current price of $25.35, implying +1.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.00 (P10) to $31.39 (P90), with a median of $27.44.
NEWTI's current P/E of 10.7x compares to the industry median of 10.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -0.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for NEWTI.
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NEWTI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (29.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8250.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.