MODEL VERDICT
New Gold Inc. (NGD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $9.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $12.54 | +38.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $8.62 | -5.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $2.50 | -72.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $3.27 | -64.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $2.31 | -74.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $2.84 | -68.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $8.04 | -11.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $8.92 | -1.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $2.50 | -72.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $3.27 | -64.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.21 | -31.6% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 55× | 60× | 65× (Current) | 70× | 75× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 19.16 | 23.74 | 5.53 | 28.20 | 12.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.82 | 4.95 | 3.12 | 6.78 | 1.24 |
| P/FCF | 46.87 | 30.67 | 13.40 | 139.73 | 48.68 |
| P/FFO | 6.05 | 5.31 | 3.03 | 13.88 | 4.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 1.07 | 0.46 | 1.88 | 0.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.07 | 0.46 | 1.88 | 0.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.38 | 1.27 | 0.72 | 2.30 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates NGD's fair value at $6.21 vs the current price of $9.08, implying -31.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.36 (P10) to $7.43 (P90), with a median of $6.34.
NGD's current P/E of 64.9x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +262.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover NGD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.38 (range: $12.00 — $12.75), implying +36.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NGD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.