MODEL VERDICT
Ingevity Corporation (NGVT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $71.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $65.99 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $67.82 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $66.67 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $67.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $101.53 | +41.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $135.86 | +88.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $230.74 | +220.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $103.63 | +44.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $280.34 | +289.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $34.74 | -51.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $54.77 | -23.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $230.74 | +220.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.83 | +73.4% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.63 | 18.71 | 12.81 | 24.31 | 4.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.19 | 17.13 | 12.56 | 38.00 | 10.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 | 9.26 | 7.79 | 11.77 | 1.43 |
| P/FCF | 17.38 | 15.86 | 7.83 | 29.02 | 6.91 |
| P/FFO | 12.13 | 12.60 | 8.46 | 14.68 | 2.43 |
| P/AFFO | 60.26 | 23.13 | 12.20 | 226.76 | 93.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.63 | 4.90 | 2.73 | 72.13 | 25.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.02 | 2.85 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NGVT's fair value at $124.83 vs the current price of $71.98, implying +73.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $114.40 (P10) to $151.04 (P90), with a median of $132.32.
NGVT's current P/E of -15.6x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -154.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover NGVT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $76.67 (range: $65.00 — $83.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NGVT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.