MODEL VERDICT
Niu Technologies (NIU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $6.75 | +86.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 19 industry peers | $96.09 | +2554.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 19 industry peers | $57.91 | +1499.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.68 | +443.6% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.42 | 5.71 | 3.44 | 13.11 | 5.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.30 | 5.10 | 2.82 | 10.99 | 4.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.76 | 5.27 | 2.70 | 9.81 | 3.11 |
| P/FCF | 15.67 | 14.48 | 7.05 | 26.69 | 8.47 |
| P/FFO | 5.33 | 4.13 | 2.94 | 10.11 | 3.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.15 | 2.36 | 0.77 |
| P/AFFO | 25.76 | 32.89 | 8.02 | 36.36 | 15.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.15 | 2.23 | 0.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.91 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates NIU's fair value at $19.68 vs the current price of $3.62, implying +443.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.02 (P10) to $41.67 (P90), with a median of $24.59.
NIU's current P/E of -10.3x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -181.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover NIU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NIU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.