MODEL VERDICT
XPeng Inc. (XPEV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $17.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $17.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $17.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.02 | Pending | -12.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $5.31 | -69.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $182.28 | +938.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $133.53 | +660.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.52 | +170.6% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0.23 | 1.09 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.56 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 1.06 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.82 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 6.27 | 2.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates XPEV's fair value at $47.52 vs the current price of $17.56, implying +170.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.27 (P10) to $84.91 (P90), with a median of $53.04.
XPEV's current P/E of -9.8x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -158.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover XPEV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.50 (range: $17.00 — $34.00), implying +45.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for XPEV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.