MODEL VERDICT
National Bankshares, Inc. (NKSH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $18.38 | -52.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $32.51 | -16.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $35.51 | -8.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $61.71 | +59.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $18.38 | -52.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $30.60 | -20.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.25 | -24.4% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $34 | $37 | $39 | $42 | $44 |
| Conservative (5%) | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Base Case (-14.1%) | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.40 | 12.63 | 9.31 | 23.15 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.59 | 5.57 | 3.40 | 10.53 | 2.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.28 | 5.35 | 3.32 | 10.09 | 2.75 |
| P/FCF | 15.40 | 13.64 | 8.55 | 28.62 | 6.62 |
| P/FFO | 13.54 | 12.09 | 9.09 | 20.20 | 3.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.43 | 1.37 | 1.04 | 2.07 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 16.01 | 13.57 | 9.55 | 32.15 | 7.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.01 | 1.97 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.92 | 3.91 | 2.24 | 5.48 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NKSH's fair value at $29.25 vs the current price of $38.69, implying -24.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.86 (P10) to $32.92 (P90), with a median of $29.64.
NKSH's current P/E of 31.2x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +110.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover NKSH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NKSH trades at the 9340th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NKSH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.