MODEL VERDICT
Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $129.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $130.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $129.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $132.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $140.13 | Below threshold | -7.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.78 | 13.01 | 7.90 | 36.91 | 11.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 87.59 | 50.69 | 35.73 | 217.73 | 72.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.06 | 33.65 | 26.44 | 69.88 | 17.92 |
| P/FCF | 8.72 | 9.00 | 5.46 | 11.63 | 2.53 |
| P/FFO | 8.53 | 6.97 | 4.98 | 14.03 | 3.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.90 | 1.34 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 10.66 | 8.73 | 6.27 | 20.48 | 5.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.06 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 1.26 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.37 | 2.61 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates NNI's fair value at $73.63 vs the current price of $129.46, implying -43.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NNI's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 11.4x (41 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.8x over 6 years. Signal: N/A.
3 analysts cover NNI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NNI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.