MODEL VERDICT
NETSTREIT Corp. (NTST) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $20.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $20.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $20.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $19.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $17.28 | Below threshold | +10.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $24.27 | +16.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $22.15 | +6.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $30.00 | +44.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $1.88 | -90.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $10.93 | -47.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $22.66 | +9.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $16.06 | -22.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.81 | +9.8% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 218× | 239× | 260× (Current) | 281× | 302× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (23%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (38%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Base Case (58.5%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (79%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 643.97 | 220.50 | 114.56 | 2436.25 | 1003.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 168.61 | 91.85 | 65.48 | 429.21 | 151.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.36 | 18.70 | 10.77 | 29.72 | 6.37 |
| P/FCF | 19.99 | 16.55 | 12.01 | 32.48 | 8.62 |
| P/FFO | 19.63 | 16.52 | 15.89 | 26.79 | 5.31 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 1.33 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 20.58 | 16.68 | 16.22 | 26.88 | 5.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.12 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.27 | 9.68 | 7.22 | 15.18 | 3.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTST's fair value at $22.81 vs the current price of $20.77, implying +9.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.82 (P10) to $26.96 (P90), with a median of $22.74.
NTST's current P/E of 259.6x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +1007.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 644.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover NTST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $19.00 — $22.00), implying +1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NTST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 605240.0% to approximately $1278. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.