Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$251.02
→
Intrinsic$708.35
+182%
$482.68$708.35$1,136.80
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NXST could have 182% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $251, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $483 → Bull $1137. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $863 | $935 | $1012 | $1094 |
| 10% | $607 | $656 | $708 | $764 |
| 12% | $465 | $501 | $540 | $582 |
| 14% | $375 | $404 | $434 | $467 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1137) offers 353% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($483) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$891.60M
Year 2$1.07B
Year 3$1.28B
Year 4$1.54B
Year 5$1.85B
Terminal$27.20B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$743.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.