MODEL VERDICT
Universal Display Corporation (OLED)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $96.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $98.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $97.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $303.20 | +214.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $244.38 | +153.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $282.18 | +192.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $142.32 | +47.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $297.46 | +208.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $149.49 | +55.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $67.17 | -30.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $113.57 | +17.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $112.36 | +16.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $247.59 | +156.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $104.53 | +8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $282.56 | +193.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $80 | $91 | $101 | $112 | $123 |
| Conservative (8%) | $82 | $93 | $104 | $115 | $126 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $86 | $97 | $109 | $120 | $132 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $89 | $101 | $113 | $125 | $137 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.63 | 42.64 | 22.99 | 82.07 | 22.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.05 | 33.09 | 18.56 | 64.95 | 18.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.98 | 27.94 | 16.37 | 52.55 | 14.39 |
| P/FCF | 93.73 | 59.25 | 33.00 | 320.47 | 101.77 |
| P/FFO | 36.72 | 34.56 | 19.28 | 63.64 | 17.26 |
| P/TBV | 7.69 | 6.83 | 3.30 | 13.97 | 4.33 |
| P/AFFO | 45.14 | 42.80 | 23.97 | 76.17 | 20.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.96 | 6.29 | 3.16 | 11.93 | 3.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.25 | 14.12 | 8.32 | 25.31 | 6.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OLED's fair value at $282.56 vs the current price of $96.39, implying +193.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $282.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $193.22 (P10) to $278.72 (P90), with a median of $234.53.
OLED's current P/E of 19.0x compares to the industry median of 55.5x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -65.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover OLED with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $141.00 (range: $120.00 — $168.00), implying +46.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OLED's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (40.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18240.0% to approximately $272. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.