MODEL VERDICT
Cohu, Inc. (COHU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $30.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $31.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $30.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $32.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $26.86 | Pending | +17.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $17.19 | -43.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $82.11 | +171.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $75.84 | +151.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.47 | +4.2% | 100% | 47 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.07 | 16.19 | 11.04 | 59.98 | 26.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.05 | 22.46 | 11.33 | 83.97 | 33.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.36 | 16.27 | 6.80 | 178.39 | 73.38 |
| P/FCF | 27.20 | 20.71 | 15.94 | 51.43 | 16.32 |
| P/FFO | 20.60 | 16.38 | 8.55 | 41.08 | 14.82 |
| P/TBV | 12.55 | 2.89 | 2.45 | 60.72 | 23.60 |
| P/AFFO | 31.92 | 19.85 | 9.05 | 78.94 | 32.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.79 | 1.38 | 3.12 | 0.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.33 | 2.40 | 1.61 | 3.12 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates COHU's fair value at $31.47 vs the current price of $30.20, implying +4.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.71 (P10) to $39.69 (P90), with a median of $30.66.
COHU's current P/E of -19.0x compares to the industry median of 43.0x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -144.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover COHU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.50 (range: $32.00 — $33.00), implying +7.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for COHU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.